The economy fell by 2.8% in May, according to Ferreres
The official numbers are not yet available and on Tuesday, the economic activity measured by the INDEC for April will be announced. But private consultants begin to anticipate with data what everyone senses: that the activity, which was on the rise, was stopped. Will April or May be the first month of recession?
According to the estimate of Orlando Ferreres consultancy, which follows the pulse of the economy month after month, the activity fell 2.8% in May, after 14 months of rise. The reasons for the low? The fall of the harvest caused by the drought and the parate of the industry, in addition to the exchange rate.
“The sectors that until last month helped to balance with the growth the fall of the agriculture evidenced this month a sharp deceleration, taking the general index to the negative terrain”, sustains the work of Ferreres. Among those sectors, the consultant highlighted as the main affected to trade, construction and industry.
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For example, construction, which had been rising at a rate of 10%, slowed down and had an advance of just 2.1% in May. Meanwhile, trade and industry recorded the first negative figures of the year.
The field had a fall of 26.4% and accumulated in the first five months a decline of 16.4%. In detail, agriculture had a negative record of 31.5%, while livestock activity showed an expansion of 4%.
The industry, meanwhile, fell 3.3% annually, although still in the accumulated annual yields a positive balance of 0.9%. Food and beverages fell by 8.8%.
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During the first quarter of the year, the GDP grew 1.1% with respect to the previous quarter, and 3.6% in the year-on-year comparison, resulting in the seventh consecutive quarter with positive data.
The rise in GDP was a consequence of the increase in investment for construction (which had a 9.7% rise in the first quarter), the purchase of equipment and the performance of retail and wholesale. With this increase, GDP at current prices reached $ 11,975,804 million.
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